Demographics Do Not Support
Proposed School Construction Plan

The Board of Education is proposing to raise more than $40 million to pay for construction to Millburn's Middle School and High School. While there has been a bulge in school enrollment, it appears to be a temporary bulge that the Board is trying to address with a very long-term solution. Furthermore, this long-term solution does not address the near term issues and is disruptive to the learning environment over the next 2 to 3 years. These are the facts based on information and data provided to the public by the Board of Education that do not reconcile with the School Board 's current construction proposal:

• Millburn/Short Hills has seen consistent and significant declines in births every year for the past six, from 302 in 1998 to 195 in 2004, for a total decline of 35%. Historically, nothing has been a better predictor of our town's future school enrollment than birth rates. The kindergarten class has already declined 13% from its 2001 peak of 371 and dropped 9% in 2004 alone, to 325.
  
  
  
  
• The projections driving the current construction plans are based on significant numbers of preschool and school age children migrating ** to this town, when, in fact, that trend has already seen a decline from a peak of 192 children migrating to this town in 2001 to only 48 in 2004. This decline in enrollment of children who moved to Millburn/Short Hills after birth represents a decline of 75% from its 2001 peak. The decline in migration is occurring both before and after kindergarten. In the past three years children migrating to the school system prior to kindergarten have dropped every year, from 89 students in 2001 to 37 students in 2004, for a total decline of 58%. At the same time children migrating into the Millburn/Short Hills school system after kindergarten have declined 89% from 103 in 2001 to 11 in 2004.



• The Board of Education plans, which originated from projections performed by a New York research group, have been challenged by more conservative projections made by a recently hired, experienced New Jersey demographer, Sara Weissman. Ms. Weissman has been retained by many school systems throughout New Jersey to perform demographic analysis, including Chatham, Westfield, Summit and Livingston to name just a few. Ms. Weissman's demographic study projects a 36% drop in kindergarten class size from 372 in 2001 to 238 in 2009 which is supported by the decline in births rates that has occurred over the past six years. By contrast, the New York based study is projecting 340 kindergarten students in 2009 (102 more than Ms. Weissman's projections) yet in its first year of projections, the New York study overestimated 2004 kindergarten class size by 12% (364 students versus an actual 2004 enrollment of 325). The New York based study's projection for further growth in student enrollment is based on town migration projections that are much higher than those actually experienced in more than 30 years of documented Millburn/Short Hills history. Specifically, "B/K ratio" which is the percentage of the kindergarten class that was not born in Millburn/Short Hills, is assumed to be more than 70% in both 2008 and 2009. This compares to a 35 year high in town of 48% and a current B/K ratio of 12%.
  
  
• Why is the Board of Education not considering ways to better use the current and potentially growing unused capacity in the elementary schools? According to the Board of Education's Long Range Planning Study, current capacity of all the elementary schools is 2,408 students, 325 more than the 2004 elementary enrollments of 2,083. Furthermore, the above demographic issues point to a significant potential increase in unused elementary school capacity over the next 4-5 years. Based on Ms. Weissman's study, enrollments at the town's elementary schools are likely to decline by roughly 300 students from 2,095 in 2006 to 1,790 in 2009. Based on these projections only 75% of the elementary school's capacity would be utilized at the time the proposed middle school and high schools expansions were completed.
  
  
• Why is the School Board not looking into ways to better use excess capacity in the Millburn High School? Based on the School Board's Long Range Planning Study, the high school has a rated capacity to educate 1,541 students, 347 more than the enrollment of 1,194 in 2004. Roughly 55% of the proceeds from the proposed bond referendum would be used for expansion of the high school.

The Millburn/Short Hills Board of Education is planning to borrow more than $40 million to solve a temporary bulge in school enrollment. If the bond referendum is approved, we will be paying for this construction program over 20 years to solve an issue that is already self-correcting, and will only be more so when these proposed expansions are completed in 2 to 3 years. 2 of the 9 School Board members voted against the currently proposed bond referendum. Why? Because they obviously believe there must be a better solution.

** Notes: All historical data (except birth rates) reflect those provided in the Long Range Planning Study Update, dated January 2005. This study was conducted for the Millburn Township Board of Education by the Western Suffolk BOCES Office of School Planning and Research. Birth rates were provided by a demographic study that was done by former Board of Education member Noreen Brunini and presented to the Board on February 5, 2005.

Migration statistics were developed using only the historical data mentioned above. The migration statistics are calculated in two parts, first – children moving into the town's school system after birth but prior to kindergarten and second – children moving into the school system after kindergarten.

The first of these migration statistics is calculated by taking each year's kindergarten class and subtracting the births that occurred in town five years earlier. The result is the pre-kindergarten migration.

The post-kindergarten migration is calculated by taking the previous year's total enrollment, subtracting the previous year's senior class, adding the current year's kindergarten class, and finally subtracting the current year's total enrollment.

These two numbers are then added together to arrive at a total student migration into the Millburn/Short Hills school system.

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