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Tuesday, February 26, 2008 By Ralph Inglese and Alfred Mazzorana
In an open letter to the community presented at the Township Committee meeting on February 26, 2008 the WeLoveMillburn Board expressed concern regarding the planned addition of 200–400 housing units in the downtown Millburn area. WeLoveMillburn is supportive of any effort to revive the Millburn downtown business district providing the program enhances the quality of community life. WeLoveMillburn’s presentation focused on the potential impact on school enrollment implied by the addition of the condo units. WeLoveMillburn voices concern that without this plan regarding the Downtown Millburn Redevelopment Plan something as serious as yet another school bond could be proposed. The letter to the Township Committee follows: The single greatest threat facing Millburn schools is the potential to alter the delicate demographic balance between families with school-age children and those without. Downtown Millburn Redevelopment Proposal (DMRP or the Plan): WLM is supportive of any effort to revive the Millburn downtown business district providing the program enhances the quality of community life. WLM has voiced concern that the Plan, which includes approximately 200–400 new housing units (400–800+ population increase) in addition to retail businesses, will have a material impact on traffic, parking, township services and schools. The focus of this memo is the impact on our schools. WLM has performed considerable analysis pertaining to Millburn/Short Hills (M/SH) school enrollment.¹ Table III indicates that an unanticipated increase in student enrollment of 150 would create a situation in which another school bond financing would be considered.² WLM suggests the Township Committee adopt a “community impact statement” ordinance requiring developers to provide a full impact study to determine how proposed developments would affect schools, traffic, parking and other services.³ With M/SH taxes already the highest in the state of New Jersey, floating another school bond, we believe, will create increased stress and exacerbate the already existing out-migration of “empty-nesters” from our community — threatening the very taxpayer base which has been consistently supportive of maintaining our excellent school system. ¹Demographic data provided by Millburn BOE and the NJ-DOE student cohort projection model indicates that M/SH is experiencing a student enrollment bulge which is currently passing through our MS. This situation is expected to be temporary.²Although facilities currently exist, Millburn’s school administration with BOE approval has voted against utilizing those facilities via ‘redistricting’.³Such as Randolph, NJ has done.Background: Funding for our public school operates on a democratic system. By spreading school funding among a wide number of households the system benefits from economies of scale. The system works best when the ratio of non-users (i.e., “empty-nesters” and private school users) is materially greater relative to those households with students enrolled in the public school. However, if that ratio reverses, the financial impact works in the opposite direction; funding becomes more burdensome for many and intolerable for others and ultimately threatens curriculum standards. According to the 2000 census figures, Millburn has been experiencing an out migration of its 55 and older households, and a concurrent in-migration of child bearing couples, for some time now. Being a mature, relatively low population growth community makes M/SH particularly vulnerable to such demographic changes. An increase in public school enrollment beyond current projections could trigger a need for additional facilities which must then be borne by Millburn’s fixed number of households — accelerating the “empty-nester” out-migration and threatening cost cutting in academic curriculum standards, i.e., discretionary costs — the core of our schools’ reputation. An enrollment increase of just 125–150 could create the need for yet another school bond. WLM has projected the recently floated $21m bond will create between $3M–$5M of permanent increases in the school budget, the school budget is already 52% of total township tax dollars and an additional 150 students would increase further the permanent school budget and the proportion of township tax dollars. Families are attracted to M/SH for, among other reasons, our fine school system. The location (walking distance to both MS and HS) and the size of the condo units being proposed will appeal to both out of town families as well as M/SH’s own “empty-nesters” seeking to down size but remain within the Township. WLM believes the displacement of “empty-nesters” regardless of their ultimate destination will have a similar negative impact as they vacate their homes and are replaced by families with children. Although the increase in ratables derived by the proposed development plan seems attractive, the ultimate cost to the community could be devastating. Current School Facilities: M/SH school facilities are composed of five elementary schools (K–5), one Middle School (6–8) and one HS (9–12). Room for physical expansion is limited. The elementary schools, with the exception of Hartshorn and Glenwood, have excess capacity. This is due to a combination of the declining births, the enrollment “bulge” having moved through K–5 and prior construction. While this is expected to pass through the MS, adding an additional unanticipated 150 students to the MS will create new problems. WLM believes that adding to an already heavy tax burden, pressure from the community to reduce costs could threaten cuts to curriculum, the heart of our schools. Enrollment History and M/SH exposure: M/SH experienced a dramatic increase in student enrollment during the late 1990s and again post-9/11. Given the limited availability for new residential construction and moderate “empty-nester” out migration, it is not surprising that the enrollment population in M/SH has begun to level. This fact is revealed in the NJ-DOE cohort survival model. However, floating another school bond will exacerbate the out-migration trend, triggering another upward spiral in school enrollment. Tables I through III show the ‘functional capacity factors’, current and projected, at our school facilities. Table III indicates that an increase of 150 additional students will test capacity at the MS and require additional spending. The analysis points to the fact that our MS is the weak link in the system. Utilization capacity factors above 90% create crowding conditions. Conclusion and Summary: the current downtown development plan envisions anywhere from 200–400 housing units in downtown Millburn implying a population increase of 400–800+ people. These condominium units will be attractive to both young couples eager to access our fine schools as well as Millburn’s own “empty nesters” looking to down size. The nature of our community, with its limited school facilities and static taxpayer base, would drive up the tax burden to intolerable levels and WLM believes the strong base of taxpayer support for our school system will be severely tested. Message to the Township Committee of Millburn:
Source: Millburn BOE; BOCES report.
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© Copyright 2005 – WeLoveMillburn.com
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While WeLoveMillburn is not opposed to a downtown redevelopment plan, it is asking the Mayor and full Township Committee to adopt a “community impact statement” ordinance requiring developers to provide a full impact study to determine how proposed developments would affect schools, traffic, parking and other services.
